For Immediate Release

Abuja

23.3.26

Escalating Lethality and Shifting Dynamics of Terrorism in Nigeria Demand Urgent Action

CLEEN Foundation has thoroughly reviewed the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2025 report. While we acknowledge the complex and evolving nature of global terrorism, we view the findings concerning Nigeria with grave concern. The report underscores persistent and troubling trends that demand urgent and strategic re-evaluation of the nation’s counter-terrorism and security architecture.

Despite a 37% reduction in the total number of terrorist attacks between 2023 and 2024, the number of deaths attributable to terrorism has increased by 6%, reaching 565 fatalities. This troubling development underscores a significant rise in the lethality of attacks, with the average number of deaths per incident increasing from five to eight. The data clearly indicate that although attacks may be fewer, they are becoming far more devastating in their impact.

Equally alarming is the shift in targeting patterns. Civilians have emerged as the primary victims of terrorist violence, accounting for 62% of all terrorism-related deaths in 2024, compared to just 21% in the previous year. This sharp increase signals a deliberate and dangerous shift toward targeting unarmed and vulnerable populations, further exacerbating humanitarian concerns and undermining community resilience. The resurgence of Boko Haram as the deadliest terrorist group in Nigeria marks another critical development. For the first time since 2019, Boko Haram has overtaken Islamic State West Africa Province in terms of fatalities. Despite carrying out fewer attacks, Boko Haram’s death toll rose by 18% to 175, reflecting an increased capacity for high-casualty operations and signaling a potential regrouping or strategic shift.

Geographically, terrorist activity appears to be expanding beyond its traditional stronghold in Borno State into neighboring Yobe State. Yobe recorded a threefold increase in terrorism-related deaths, including the deadliest attack of the year in Mafa village, where over 100 civilians lost their lives. This shift raises urgent concerns about the spread of insecurity and the preparedness of adjacent regions to respond effectively. The report further highlights the intensifying conflict between Boko Haram and ISWAP as a major driver of violence. These inter-group clashes accounted for nearly 60% of all terrorism-related fatalities in 2024, demonstrating that internal rivalries among extremist groups continue to fuel widespread instability and civilian harm.

Importantly, these developments are occurring within a broader context of economic hardship, governance challenges, and social vulnerability. These underlying conditions not only exacerbate insecurity but also create fertile ground for extremist recruitment and radicalization, thereby sustaining the cycle of violence. In light of these findings, there is an urgent need for a comprehensive and adaptive response that goes beyond military interventions. Strengthening civilian protection, enhancing intelligence and early warning systems, addressing root causes of extremism, and fostering community resilience must be prioritized. Equally critical is the need for coordinated action among government, civil society, and international partners to reverse these troubling trends and restore safety and stability across affected communities.

Recommendations and Call to Action

1. Implement the National Security Strategy and Prioritize Civilian Protection: The NSS provides a clear roadmap to mitigating these challenges. Unfortunately, implementation of this document is weak without strategy. This is a panacea for the protection of civilians. This includes enhancing early warning systems, improving intelligence gathering to pre-empt attacks on civilian targets, and ensuring that all security operations are conducted with strict adherence to human rights and international humanitarian law to avoid further alienating communities.
2. Address Underlying Grievances: A purely military approach is insufficient. The government must accelerate efforts to address the socio-economic drivers of extremism. This includes massive investments in education, livelihood programs, and infrastructure in affected states to reduce the appeal of terrorist groups.
3. Strengthen and Expand Peacebuilding Initiatives: We commend the calls for expanded defector rehabilitation programs and improved access to rural services. These non-kinetic measures must be scaled up significantly to deradicalize, reintegrate, and prevent recidivism. Sustained peace initiatives in Borno and other affected states are crucial.
4. Enhance Intelligence and Inter-Agency Collaboration: The shifting tactics of terrorist groups require a more agile and integrated security apparatus. Greater investment is needed in intelligence-led policing, enhanced inter-agency collaboration, and improved community policing to gather actionable intelligence.
5. Deepen Regional Cooperation: The transnational nature of the threat, as evidenced by the Sahel region’s status as a global epicentre, demands stronger collaboration with neighbouring countries like Niger, Chad, Cameroon, and Benin. A unified and coordinated regional strategy is essential to dismantle the supply chains and safe havens that sustain these groups.

The Global Terrorism Index 2025 is a stark reminder that while the nature of the threat may shift, it has not diminished. The increase in lethality and the targeting of civilians are indicators of a deepening crisis. CLEEN Foundation urges the National Assembly, and all security and policy stakeholders to treat this report into a query and a call for strategic review and accelerated action to restore safety and security for all Nigerians.

Peter Maduoma

Executive Director