Election Security Threats Assessment (ESTA) for Edo Governorship Election 2024

Background:

CLEEN Foundation, in her tradition, presents the Election Security Threats Assessment for Edo State. The objective is to identify, mitigate, and prescribe remedies to potential risks that could undermine the fairness and transparency of elections. Historically, elections in Edo State, like in many parts of Nigeria, have been marred by various forms of electoral malpractices. These include voter intimidation, hate speech, vote buying, partiality of security agencies, the use of political thugs, and violence. Such actions not only undermine the credibility of the electoral process but also discourage voter participation and erode public trust in democratic institutions. Additionally, logistical issues, such as the late arrival of electoral materials and inadequate training of polling officials, can pose significant obstacles. Although the data suggest that elections in the state will largely be peaceful.

The ESTA inspires all stakeholders within the value chain to adopt a proactive approach, which is crucial to fostering a secure environment where every vote counts. In the lead-up to elections, efforts were made to conduct voter education campaigns. These campaigns aim to inform voters about their rights and responsibilities, the importance of participating in the electoral process, and the measures in place to protect the integrity of their votes. Despite these efforts, challenges remain. There is a potential for the politicisation of security forces, and now the refusal of a political party to sign off on the Peace Agreement suggests a behaviour during elections that can hinder their effectiveness in maintaining a peaceful process.

Methodology:

CLEEN Foundation deployed structured electronic surveys and questionnaires to a broad range of stakeholders, including voters, election officials, political party representatives, and civil society organisations. These tools captured experiences, perceptions, and specific incidents of security threats. In addition to this, the CLEEN Foundation also conducted semi-structured interviews with key informants such as law enforcement officials, electoral commission members, political analysts, and local leaders. These interviews provided qualitative insights that complement quantitative data, offering a deeper understanding of underlying issues and trends.

In addition to this, CLEEN Foundation also implemented direct observation techniques during election-related activities such as campaign rallies, voter registration, media sources, peace accord signing, et al. This data supported to validate primary data and provided additional evidence on the frequency and intensity of security threats.

Key Findings:

At the heart of this assessment is a comprehensive analysis of various risk factors that could disrupt the electoral process. These include political violence, voter intimidation, the use of political thugs, cyber threats, partiality of security agencies, poor synergy between INEC and security stakeholders and logistical challenges. By addressing these issues, election stakeholders can develop robust strategies to ensure a secure environment for voters and electoral officials. Uhuwonde, Orhiornwon, Ovia Northeast, Oredo, Estako East, Esan West, Esan North and Esan Central are specific areas to keep an eye on.

Types of Threats:

• Hate speech
• Poor synergy between INEC and Security agencies
• Aggressive and excessive use of force
• Voters Intimidation
• Partiality of security agencies
• Vote buying
• Voter apathy

Recommendations:

Pre Election:

• The Nigeria Police, working with sister security agencies, should increased the presence of security personnel and other assets in identified hotspots;
• The National Peace Committee should further support the collaboration between political parties and security forces to promote peaceful elections;
• CLEEN Foundation and other civil society organisations will sustain the webinar to sustain community engagement and sensitisation to reduce tensions;

Election Day:

• INEC and the NPF must implement their logistical and security deployment plans to ensure the safety of voters, electoral materials, and officials;
• INEC must maintain strategic and constant communication with citizens on the process and proactively disclose any glitch that may have occurred, as well as their remedial measures;
• Citizens must refrain from posting unverified election results through various social media platforms, as this has the potential to create undue tension.
• The IGP must ensure that all assets deployed for the election strike a chord of neutrality;
• The mainstream media must demonstrate professionalism in the airing of content and/or entertaining guests that are capable of inciting the populace;

Post Election:

• INEC must ensure that it has mechanisms to verify the authenticity of election result sheets posted to the collation centre;
• Security agencies must be on red alert to prevent, deter and contain any form of protest that might occasion result in a declaration.
• Political stakeholders must refrain from the use of incisive language that is capable of threatening peace and security in the state.

In conclusion:

The primary security concerns encompass electoral violence, voter intimidation, and the spread of misinformation. Electoral violence, often orchestrated by political actors or disgruntled groups, poses a significant challenge as it can cause voter apathy and influence electoral outcomes. Such violence not only endangers lives but also undermines public confidence in the electoral system.